Obama’s Empty Pivot in the Asia-Pacific

A debate has raged for the past few months about what to call President Obama’s Asian strategy. To be honest, it really doesn’t matter whether you call the shift toward Asia a pivot, a refocus or a rebalancing. What does matter is that it’s a relatively hollow move which belies something of much greater concern: The administration is effectively jeopardizing American national security interests by promoting a foreign policy approach far too reliant on soft power diplomacy.

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How to Respond to Chinese Revisionism?

In the aftermath of the failed Russian re-set, much has been written about the Obama Administration’s inability to convince Moscow to support Washington’s diplomatic priorities. Nowhere is this more evident than Syria, where Russia’s third veto at the United Nations’ Security Council was widely portrayed as Moscow’s support of Assad’s reign of terror.

(Source: The Huffington Post)

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Small State Dynamic in Fiji-Australia Relations

The vast majority of the world’s small states are the developing small island stateswhich dot the Pacific and are far removed from major regional centers. Profoundly dependent on tourism and primary export crops, these states are particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in the global economy. As a result, many are heavily dependent ondevelopment aid and emergency assistance. In return, Australia and its allies have carved out a sphere of influence in the Pacific which has gone unchallenged for decades.

With the rise of China, however, cracks are starting to form in Australia’s regional dominance. The Pacific island nations have discovered a new source of development assistance to offset their traditional dependence on Western aid. And although the Chinese approach has its weaknesses, its extensive loan programs pose a serious long-term challenge to Australian power and influence in the Pacific. To make matters worse, the region’s small states may be experiencing a delayed shift in their strategic cultures, which could push certain countries away from their traditional ties with Australia.

(Source: isn.ethz.ch)

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Australia Uranium Deal: A Risky Proposition

Former Australian Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd’s recent defeat by incumbent Prime Minister Julia Gillard was severe. With only 31 of 102 votes cast his way, many speculate that Rudd will never again be considered for prime minister. Such are the consequences of political hubris.

(Source: The Huffington Post)

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Will Fiji Overplay Its China Card?

For more than two decades, Fiji has endured one coup after another. During the latest one, Commodore Frank Bainimarama overthrew Prime Minister Laisenia Qarase’s duly elected but troubled government. Since then, Australia has tried to coerce Fiji back to democracy. The regime’s failure to return to the polls, has led to Fiji’s suspension from the Pacific Islands Forum and the Commonwealth. But, these actions have not led to a completely united approach, even in the West. To date, Bainimarama’s tactics have provoked differing levels of outrage among the regional players, particularly Australia, China, and the United States. Their varying approaches will not only shape their ongoing interactions with the Bainimarama regime but also could affect long-term strategic interests in the South Pacific.

(Source: The Huffington Post)

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An Uncertain Future for Fiji?

In a recent conversation with Ambassador Winston Thompson of the Republic of Fiji, the ambassador was asked how he addresses skeptics who believe that Commodore Frank Bainimarama’s lifting of martial law was disingenuous. His opening remark, “We can only wait and see.” While out of context, this response quite rightly captures the larger state of affairs in Fiji. Led by a military leader who views himself as a savior but who is condemned by Australia as a despot, Fiji remains a country with an uncertain future. The only thing that appears clear is that the path Fiji chooses resides in Bainimarama’s hands not Julia Gillard’s. Barring some major policy shift by other regional powers, democracy will not return to Fiji without his acquiescence.

(Source: The Huffington Post)

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Australia’s High Octane F-35 Debate

Concerns about the changing balance of power in the Asia-Pacific are fuelling a debate in Australia about the potential acquisition of 100 F-35s. The decision is important in a country where maintaining regional air superiority remains critical to its national security thinking.

(Source: isn.ethz.ch)

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Australia Rethinks Its F-35 Purchase

Persistent talk that the Australian government is reassessing its $16 billion-plus,100-plane commitment to the F-35 fighter programme has sharpened following recent statements by Australian Defence Minister Stephen Smith.

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Canberra Reassessing the F-35 Commitment?

The Australian government is now reconsidering its $16 billion-plus commitment to the Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) Program.

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Australia: America’s Southern Anchor

Late last month, Australian Defence Minister Stephen Smith gave a luncheon speech at the Brookings Institution in Washington. He addressed a number of key issues, including the 60th anniversary of the Australia-US alliance, the rise of India, China and the Association of Southeast Asian nations, and ongoing joint military operations in Afghanistan. However, as Benjamin Reilly, visiting professor at the Johns Hopkins University SAIS, observed, one of his most important points raised failed to garner much attention: Smith’s assertion that Australia continues to serve as the ‘southern anchor’ for US defence policy in the Asia-Pacific.

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Why Oceania Matters to the Pentagon

Since World War II, the United States has devoted few resources to the promotion of peace and stability in Oceania. Instead, it has relied on Australia and New Zealand to maintain Western strategic influence in the region. However, faced with a rising China and other emerging security issues, many analysts believe that the United States can no longer take Oceania for granted. Indeed, without the support of the United States and other regional powers, some question whether Australia and New Zealand will be able to sustain their roles as the sole guarantors of peace and stability in the region indefinitely.

(Source: thediplomat.com)

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AUS Northern Sea-Air Gap Right for F-35?

(Source: foreword.com.au)

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